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Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic - US Open 2023
Alexander Zverev, ATP Tennis Players, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic, Tennis News, Tennis Tournaments

ATP Finals Permutations: Who can still qualify for the semi-finals?


With the ATP Finals approaching the final round-robin matches, we at Tennishead have assessed the different scenarios that could take place, with there even being a possibility that Novak Djokovic does not qualify for the semi-finals.

Green Group

The Green Group will be completed first and there is still plenty more to be decided between Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Holger Rune later today, with Stefanos Tsitsipas’ replacement Hubert Hurkacz unable to qualify with only one match in the tournament.

Although Sinner has won both of his matches so far, against Tsitsipas and Djokovic, there are still scenarios where the Italian home favourite does not qualify for the semi-finals.

Here are all of the possible permutations for the Green Group:

  • If Sinner beats Rune and Djokovic beats Hurkacz, then Sinner wins the group and Djokovic qualifies second.
  • If Sinner beats Rune and Hurkacz beats Djokovic, then Sinner wins the group and Djokovic qualifies second.
  • If Rune beats Sinner and Hurkacz beats Djokovic, then Rune wins the group and Sinner qualifies second.
  • If Rune beats Sinner in straight sets and Djokovic beats Hurkacz in straight sets, then Rune wins the group and Djokovic qualifies second.
  • If Rune beats Sinner and Djokovic beats Hurkacz in three sets, then Rune wins the group and Sinner qualifies second. 
  • If Djokovic beats Hurkacz in straight sets and Rune beats Sinner in three sets, then the order of Djokovic, Sinner and Rune will be determined by percentage of games won.

Red Group 

After beating Alexander Zverev last night, Daniil Medvedev confirmed his spot as the first player to reach the semi-finals at the 2023 ATP Finals.

However, his Russian compatriot Andrey Rublev suffered the opposite fate after losing his second round-robin match to Carlos Alcaraz, meaning that the world No.5 can no longer advance any further.

This leaves the final qualification spot for the Red Group between Alcaraz and Zverev, which will be decided on Friday.

Here are all the possible scenarios:

  • If Alcaraz beats Medvedev and Rublev beats Zverev, then Alcaraz wins the group and Medvedev qualifies second.
  • If Medvedev beats Alcaraz and Rublev beats Zverev, then Medvedev wins the group and Alcaraz qualifies second.
  • If Medvedev beats Alcaraz and Zverev beats Rublev, then Medvedev wins the group and Zverev qualifies second.
  • If Alcaraz beats Medvedev in straight sets and Zverev beats Rublev, then Alcaraz wins the group and Medvedev qualifies second.
  • If Alcaraz beats Medvedev in three sets and Zverev beats Rublev, then Medvedev wins the group and Alcaraz qualifies second.

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Matthew Johns, Tennishead Writer, is a professional tennis journalist with a specialist degree in Sports Journalism. He's a keen tennis player having represented his local club and University plus he's also a qualified tennis coach. Matthew has a deep knowledge of tennis especially the ATP Tour and thrives on breaking big tennis news stories for Tennishead.